Today I conducted a survey on high density housing on Nextdoor.com - a social networking site akin to Facebook for neighbors with 1,587 residents represented. Within 6 hours I had 100 responses starting to illuminate what we, the residents of Terra Linda and Marinwood, collectively really think about high density housing, concessions we would make to allow more affordable housing and what we think of our elected leaders.
Now I will be the first to admit there is highly likely to be survey bias - I posted the survey, and Nextdoor.com represents perhaps the most vocal and active residents. I've seen people on both sides of the issue on this site. So my call to action here is really for a proper survey to be conducted with non-leading questions across a truly representative and statistically significant sample size.
Support for Affordable Housing
Asked "there should be more affordable housing in Marin" 23% of respondents agreed. Asked "there should be more affordable housing in my neighborhood (within 1/2 mile of my house) only 6% agreed. This is lower than I had hoped, I would like to see some more affordable housing, but when looking at such a low response rate it must be considered:
- some neighborhoods are fairly built out so people may not see opportunities for more housing
- many newer neighborhoods already incorporate 20% affordable housing
- the forceful push for high density, which is being associated with the affordable housing, is creating a needless stigma
- some are waking up to the fact that they may be subsidizing new residents from outside the county with higher incomes than them. This is because affordable housing selects people with up to 120% of the median income, and the new residents current location (e.g. Alameda) cannot be used as a disqualification criteria - remember residents in counties adjacent to Marin likely outnumber Marin applicants.
What Concessions Would Respondents Make to Accommodate More Affordable Housing
Currently residents are being asked to sign a blank check with PDAs, Plan Bay Area and station area housing plans all being established and accepted before any understanding of the cost has been determined.
Here are the concessions residents would not make:
- decrease quality of my children's school by 5% (4% supported)
- allow apartment buildings 5 storys high (8% supported)
- increase property taxes by 5% (15% only supported)
- increase traffic at local intersections by 5% (15% supported)
- increase class size of my children's school by 3+ (23%)
There were some closer calls:
- increase sales tax by 1/2% (31% supported)
Residents would however make some concessions to allow affordable housing:
- allow apartment buildings 3 storys high (58% supported)
What is interesting is that many affordable housing units may go to new residents with incomes higher than that of existing residents. So some may end up subsidizing others with higher incomes. Asked if residents would pay higher taxes to subsidize new residents earning less 4% said yes, asked to subsidize residents earning the same or more 0% - no respondents - said yes. Yet in many cases this is what affordable housing proponents are effectively advocating.
Who is Informed, Who is Misled, Who is Over-Reacting?
46% believe that proponents of high density, affordable housing are uninformed or misled, while 10% believe opponents are uninformed or misled and 13% believe opponents are over-reacting.
80% oppose 3-5 story high density housing in their neighborhood, and 74% oppose concentrations of more than 25% of new affordable housing being located in their neighborhood (within 1/2 mile).
The overall impression one gets from the stats is that there is warm acceptance for affordable housing, but it needs to be:
- in moderation
- distributed
- in architectural character, meaning lower density
98% of respondents said that affordable housing should be low density spread across 5+ sites, while only 2% said it should be concentrated into high density buildings in two or fewer targeted areas. Could respondents send an any clearer opposition to PDAs and high new housing concentrations?
So if somehow we can extricate high density from affordable housing, and place the affordable housing more evenly and in suburban character then there would be quite a bit of support.
Transit Oriented Development
There clearly isn't buy in to transit oriented development with 45% stating it's a bad idea and 12% stating it's a good idea and 3% not aware of what this means.
SMART Train Perceptions
On a related notes 15% believe SMART is good for Marin, 51% believe it is bad and should be stopped, and 38% think it is a significant contributor to causing over-development.
Susan Adams Recall
46% of respondents have signed the Susan Adams recall, 18% more would like to sign it, 12% oppose the recall, and 16% believe it is a waste of money. 63% said Adams should be recalled, and confirmed living in her district.
Mayor Phillips Recall
28 respondents lived in San Rafael of which 23 stated that if high density housing plans in their neighborhood were not removed by the end of September then Mayor Phillips should be recalled. That represents 83% support for a recall among city of San Rafael voting respondents.
Politicians Supporting High Density Face Major Popularity Challenges
83% of all respondents (San Rafael and unincorporated Marin) stated that they would vote for a candidate AGAINST high density housing, only 3% would vote for a high density candidate and 6% said this topic would not influence their vote. Very polarizing !
In San Rafael the popularity of candidates came out as follows:
- Randy Warren, opposes high density (30%)
- Greg Brockbank, supports high density (3%)
- Kate Colin, supports high density (1%)
- Maribeth Bushey-Lang, supports high density (1%)
Seems like supporting high density makes you radio-active!
However it must be noted that the survey identified which politicians were for and against high density housing and PDAs based on past voting records in the planning commission, lack of opposition or statements in council meetings (Brockbank).
Marin Supervisor Candidates
Of candidates for Marin Supervisor the results came out as follows:
- Carol Brandt (41%)
- Damon Connolly (18%) < he has not declare he is running yet though
- Susan Adams (10%)
Plan Bay Area
Plan Bay Area received especially strong opposition:
- 76% oppose Plan Bay Area
- 10% have heard of it but don't know much about it
- 4% have heard about it but don' t think it will affect them
- only 2% support Plan Bay Area (2 in 100 respondents)
One truly hopes Marin's three representatives, Supervisors Kinsey, Rice and Mayor Eklund represent these opinions at the upcoming vote on July 18th.
Finally is the Housing Planned Too Little, Too Much or Just Right?
The consensus is clear:
84% say too much new housing is planned
7% said an acceptable amount is planned
1% said too little
1% didn't believe what was planned would be built
4% needed more information before casting a verdict
Conclusion
It would be great to have a broader survey of residents, with genuine trade off questions presented to the community - effectively a referendum of sorts. But what is becoming clear is that there is a large chasm between where our representatives are taking us and what Marinites really want.
The reassuring news for me was that there is reasonable support for affordable housing - people are willing to make concessions. What is being asked too much, too high, too dense and too costly.
