Too Close to Call: San Rafael City Council Race Remains Shrouded in Uncertainty

Could the San Rafael City Council race turn on a hanging chad?

Could recounts follow? Perhaps even court challenges?

One thing is for sure: The outcome of a narrow race for the second open seat on the council between Maribeth Bushey Lang and Greg Brockbank won’t be known until late next week at the earliest.

The race started to take on a Florida 2000 flavor as the returns flowed in late Tuesday night pointing to a race that’s too close to call.

Appointed incumbent Kate Colin easily defended her seat with 34.4 percent of the vote, but the second seat up for grabs in Tuesday’s race had Lang leading Brockbank 24.8 to 23.2 percent.

An preliminary estimate of outstanding mail-in and provisional ballots for Marin County is approximately 20,000. 

There is no such estimate for San Rafael, but the county’s largest city has 19 percent of the Marin’s 151,407 registered voters, so if the proportion of outstanding council fall in line with that percentage, that could be as many as 3,800 ballots yet to be counted in this race.

“Nobody knows the exact numbers,” Brockbank said by phone Tuesday night, “but only when those votes are counted in three weeks will they certify this election.

“The only question is whether I can pick up another 1.6 percent and win, and that’s anybody’s guess at this point.”

Marin County Registrar of Voters Elaine Ginnold told Patch updated totals would be released on Friday, with all mail-in ballots expected to be tallied by Nov. 15. Provisional ballots could take longer, she said.

“Nobody knows the exact numbers,” Brockbank said by phone Tuesday night, “but only when those votes are counted in three weeks will they certify this election.

“The only question is whether I can pick up another 1.6 percent and win, and that’s anybody’s guess at this point.”

Lang expressed cautious optimism when asked to assess her chances in a phone interview on Tuesday.

“Our position is that we are confident with the numbers that have come out so far, we are being respectful of the provisional ballots being counted and we look forward to the final tally, however long it takes.”

Candidates can elect to have election officials conduct a recount, but they’ll have to foot the bill, Ginnold said, noting that there are no state or local provisions triggering a recount.

The county has 29 days to certify the elections results, she said.  Candidates seeking to delay such certifications would need a court injunction for alleged irregularities, Ginnold said.